Emerging Technologies - Forecast

This from Gartner, Inc.
Publication Date: 9 July 2008/ID Number: G00159496

The following technologies and trends are at or around the peak of hype during 2008:

• Green IT. Along with broader societal pressure for environmentally sustainable
solutions, IT has the opportunity — and in many cases, a requirement — to improve the
"greenness" of its own activities, as well as to contribute to broader company and
industry environmental initiatives.

• Cloud computing. As enterprises seek to consume their IT services in the most costeffective
way, interest is growing in drawing a broad range of services (for example,
computational power, storage and business applications) from the "cloud," rather than
from on-premises equipment. Many types of technology providers are aligning
themselves with this trend, with the result that confusion and hype will continue for at
least another year before distinct submarkets and market leaders emerge.

• Social computing platforms. Following the phenomenal success of consumer-oriented
social networking sites, such as MySpace and Facebook, enterprises are examining the
role that these sites, or their enterprise-grade equivalents, will play in future
collaboration environments. The scope is also expanding to incorporate the notion of
social "platforms," or environments for a broad range of developers to build on the basic
application.

• Video telepresence. High-end videoconferencing systems (for example, from HP,
Cisco, Teliris and others) that utilize large, high-definition (HD) displays and components
to show life-size images of participants in meeting rooms or suites have proven
significantly more-effective than earlier generations of videoconferencing technology in
providing a strong sense of in-room presence between remote participants. High cost is
currently the barrier to broader adoption.

• Microblogging. Pioneered by Twitter (although other services are becoming available),
microblogging is a relatively new addition to the world of social networking, in which
contributors post a stream of very short (less than 140 characters) messages providing
information about their current activity or thoughts, which can then be subscribed to by
others. The phenomenon has caught on among certain online communities, and
leading-edge enterprises are investigating its role in enhancing other social media and
channels.

• 3-D printers. Thanks to dramatic price reductions and quality improvements during the
past two or three years, 3-D printers (which create a physical model from a digital
design) are expanding into hobbyist, education and small business markets, and have
transformational potential in manufacturing, replacement parts and design industries.

Since 2007, virtual worlds have slipped down toward the Trough of Disillusionment, based on a
lack of compelling business applications for the technology and economic challenges in Second
Life, one of the most visible virtual worlds. Topics, such as corporate blogging and Web 2.0 in
general, are suffering from the inevitable impatience and disillusionment that comes from earlier
overhype, particularly when the promise of highly successful consumer models clashes with
enterprise requirements for security and accountability. However, planners should remember that most technologies pull through the Trough.